Fall Transition: The four phases at a glance

Calendar for 44–46°N (eastern Ontario). Shift about 3 days earlier per degree north, about 5 days later per degree south; a Texas reservoir turns over in November.

Phase	Typical dates (44–46°N)	Trigger	Surface water	Weeds	Where the fish are	Bite
1 · Cold-snap shutdown	early–mid Sept	first hard front, nights suddenly cold	72→66°F (22→19°C)	still green, growth stops	hold where they were, tight to cover or bottom	slow for 1–2 weeks [field]
2 · Weeds die in stages	mid–late Sept	shorter days plus steady cooling	66→60°F (19→16°C)	shallow and fine-leaved beds brown first	leave dying weed for the last green edge, hard bottom, wood, docks	streaky; wind turns it on
3 · Turnover	Sept 15–30 (deep lakes about a week later; rare on flowing lakes)	surface as dense as the deep water, a run of cold nights	60→55°F (16→13°C)	everything that will die is dead	deep bottom, suspended just under the surface, near current, the submerged weedline	hardest week of the year
4 · Post-turnover clear water	Oct 1 to about Nov 1	the column is mixed and settles clear	55→45°F (13→7°C)	surviving weed sits below the surface for winter	baitfish cornered in deep-water bays and pockets, open water, channel edges	slow but decisive; dead-stick leads [field]

By about October 1 almost every lake at this latitude has cleared. A board showing "turnover not yet" in mid October is wrong for eastern Ontario.

Phase 1 · The cold-snap shutdown →

Fall Transition

From the first hard cool-down to the clear water of October: four phases, where the fish sit in each, what the baitfish do, how the weather changes the call, and why a dead-sticked worm beats a minnow bait while the fish are off-colour. Calendar anchored at 44–46°N (eastern Ontario).

Fall Transition